Two sources with different purposes

A. Species account. NOAA identifies commercial fishing as a main threat to giant manta rays. Some are caught deliberately; others are bycatch, caught while fishers seek other species. Their global population size is unknown. This is a species-specific threat assessment, not a claim about all rays.

B. Distribution research. A NOAA research summary describes more than 5,000 verified sightings gathered from surveys and other reports. Records were concentrated where people were more likely to see mantas. Researchers accounted for aerial survey effort and viewing conditions in a model of likely occurrence in eastern U.S. and Gulf waters. For example, the model predicts high nearshore occurrence off northeastern Florida in April. Sightings can include repeat observations; they are not a count of distinct animals. A regional prediction is not a global population estimate.

Terms: a distribution model uses observations and other information to estimate where an animal is likely to occur. Survey effort describes how much searching was done. A prediction is a model's expectation, not a promise of a sighting. Accounting for uneven observations improves a model; it does not remove every uncertainty.

A — NOAA Fisheries: Giant Manta Ray. B — NOAA Fisheries: Where Giant Manta Rays Go and Why (2022).